Education

Research experience

https://ikashnitsky.github.io/me

https://www.r-bloggers.com/author/ilya-kashnitsky/

https://ikashnitsky.github.io/dem-digest/

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE

University of Groningen & Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

• Joop de Beer (daily supervisor)
• Leo van Wissen (principle investigator)

4 papers

• DEM: demographic factors affecting convergence/divergence in ageing
• ECON: relationship between convergence/divergence in ageing and convergence/divergence in economies
• URBRUR: urban/rural differences in regional convergence/divergence in ageing
• ???

DATA

EU-27
NUTS-2 (261)
2003-2012

• Eurostat (population structures; mortality)
• National statistical databases
• European Regional Database (Cambridge Econometrics)

https://demotrends.wordpress.com/2017/03/16/working-with-spatial-data-to-generate-a-consistent-demographic-time-series/

Decomposition of regional convergence in population ageing across Europe

• Presented at European Population Conference, September 2016
• Accepted in Genus

Economic convergence in ageing Europe

• Presented at Regional Studies Conference, April 2016
• Presented at Third Russian Economic Congress, December 2016
• Under peer-review in Journal of Demographic Economics

Background

GDP per capita

Share of working-age population

Theoretical relationship

• Convergence/divergence in ageing
• Convergence/divergence in economies

Analytical strategy

Decomposition of GDP growth

\[ \frac{GDP_2/P_2}{GDP_1/P_1} = \frac{GDP_2/W_2}{GDP_1/W_1} * \frac{W_2/P_2}{W_1/P_1} \]

\[ \frac{GDP_2/P_2}{GDP_1/P_1} = \frac{GDP_2/W_2}{GDP_1/W_1} * \frac{W_2/P_2}{W_1/P_1} \]

Counterfactual analysis

• Convergence/divergence in economies with no change in population structures
• Additional effect of changes in population structures

Results

Urbanization and regional difference in ageing in Europe

• Presented at Dutch Demography Day, November 2016
• Presented at Belgian Demography Day, March 2017
• To be submitted in May 2017

Convergence OR divergence in ageing?

The two alternative hypotheses

H1: convergence in ageing

Demographic Transition

H2: divergence in ageing

Urban/Rural divide

H1: convergence in ageing

Urbanization in Europe?

H2: divergence in ageing

Conclusions

• The differences between subregions of Europe contribute to divergence in ageing in the 1st part of the study period; the convergent developments begin in the 2nd subperiod.
• H1 supported

• Contrary to our aspirations, urban/rural differences do not lead to divergence in population ageing at NUTS-2 level.
• H2 not supported