REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE

Ilya Kashnitsky

16 March 2017

Ilya Kashnitsky

Education

edu

Research experience

job

https://ikashnitsky.github.io/me

https://www.r-bloggers.com/author/ilya-kashnitsky/

https://ikashnitsky.github.io/dem-digest/

PhD project

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE

University of Groningen & Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

4 papers


  • DEM: demographic factors affecting convergence/divergence in ageing
  • ECON: relationship between convergence/divergence in ageing and convergence/divergence in economies
  • URBRUR: urban/rural differences in regional convergence/divergence in ageing
  • ???

DATA


EU-27
NUTS-2 (261)
2003-2012


  • Eurostat (population structures; mortality)
  • European Regional Database (Cambridge Econometrics)

DEM (paper 1)

Decomposition of regional convergence in population ageing across Europe


  • Presented at European Population Conference, September 2016
  • Under second revision in Genus

Background

Decomposition


1 step

\[ TSR_2 - TSR_1 = \frac{W_2}{NW_2} - \frac{W_1}{NW_1} = \]

\[ = [\frac{1}{2} * (W_2 + W_1) * (\frac{1}{NW_2} - \frac{1}{NW_1})] + [\frac{1}{2} * (\frac{1}{NW_2} + \frac{1}{NW_1}) * (W_2 - W_1)] \]


2 step

\[ W_2 = W_1 + CT + M_W - D_W \]


Results

ECON (paper 2)

Economic convergence in ageing Europe


  • Presented at Regional Studies Conference, April 2016
  • Presented at Third Russian Economic Congress, December 2016
  • Under first revision in Journal of Demographic Economics

Background

GDP per capita

Share of working-age population

Theoretical relationship


  • Convergence/divergence in ageing
  • Convergence/divergence in economies

Analytical strategy


Decomposition of GDP growth


\[ \frac{GDP_2/P_2}{GDP_1/P_1} = \frac{GDP_2/W_2}{GDP_1/W_1} * \frac{W_2/P_2}{W_1/P_1} \]

\[ \frac{GDP_2/P_2}{GDP_1/P_1} = \frac{GDP_2/W_2}{GDP_1/W_1} * \frac{W_2/P_2}{W_1/P_1} \]


Counterfactual analysis


  • Convergence/divergence in economies with no change in population structures
  • Additional effect of changes in population structures

Results

URBRUR (paper 3)

Urbanization and regional difference in ageing in Europe


  • Presented at Dutch Demography Day, November 2016
  • To be presented at Belgian Demography Day, March 2017
  • To be submitted in May 2017

The two alternative hypotheses

H1: convergence in ageing


Demographic Transition

H2: divergence in ageing


Urban/Rural divide

4-th paper